Below is a chart which lists all the incoming freshmen in the 110th Congress. They are listed in order from the most Republican to the most Democratic district, according to PVI.
| State | CD | Member | Party | PVI | Switch | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 3 | Smith | (R) | R+23.6 | Open | |
| ID | 1 | Sali | (R) | R+18.9 | Open | |
| CA | 22 | McCarthy | (R) | R+16.0 | Open | |
| CO | 5 | Lamborn | (R) | R+15.7 | Open | |
| TX | 22 | Lampson | (D) | R+14.5 | R » D | Open |
| TN | 1 | Davis | (R) | R+13.9 | Open | |
| OH | 4 | Jordan | (R) | R+13.6 | Open | |
| OK | 5 | Fallin | (R) | R+11.9 | Open | |
| IN | 8 | Ellsworth | (D) | R+8.5 | R » D | |
| NV | 2 | Heller | (R) | R+8.2 | Open | |
| PA | 10 | Carney | (D) | R+8.0 | R » D | |
| KS | 2 | Boyda | (D) | R+7.3 | R » D | |
| IN | 9 | Hill | (D) | R+7.1 | R » D | |
| NC | 11 | Shuler | (D) | R+7.1 | R » D | |
| OH | 18 | Space | (D) | R+6.1 | R » D | Open |
| MN | 6 | Bachmann | (R) | R+5.1 | Open | |
| FL | 9 | Bilirakis | (R) | R+4.3 | Open | |
| IN | 2 | Donnelly | (D) | R+4.3 | R » D | |
| FL | 13 | Buchanan | (R) | R+4.1 | Open | |
| AZ | 5 | Mitchell | (D) | R+3.7 | R » D | |
| WI | 8 | Kagen | (D) | R+3.7 | R » D | Open |
| CA | 11 | McNerney | (D) | R+3.0 | R » D | |
| IL | 6 | Roskam | (R) | R+2.9 | Open | |
| PA | 4 | Altmire | (D) | R+2.6 | R » D | |
| MI | 7 | Walberg | (R) | R+2.5 | Open* | |
| NY | 20 | Gillibrand | (D) | R+2.5 | R » D | |
| FL | 16 | Mahoney | (D) | R+2.4 | R » D | Open |
| NY | 19 | Hall | (D) | R+1.5 | R » D | |
| AZ | 8 | Giffords | (D) | R+1.4 | R » D | Open |
| MN | 1 | Walz | (D) | R+0.9 | R » D | |
| NY | 24 | Arcuri | (D) | R+0.6 | R » D | Open |
| NH | 1 | Shea-Porter | (D) | R+0.1 | R » D | |
| OH | 6 | Wilson | (D) | D+0.4 | Open | |
| CO | 7 | Perlmutter | (D) | D+2.3 | R » D | Open |
| KY | 3 | Yarmuth | (D) | D+2.4 | R » D | |
| NH | 2 | Hodes | (D) | D+2.7 | R » D | |
| PA | 8 | Murphy | (D) | D+3.4 | R » D | |
| PA | 7 | Sestak | (D) | D+3.6 | R » D | |
| CT | 5 | Murphy | (D) | D+3.7 | R » D | |
| FL | 22 | Klein | (D) | D+3.7 | R » D | |
| IL | 17 | Hare | (D) | D+4.6 | Open | |
| IA | 1 | Braley | (D) | D+4.8 | R » D | |
| OH | 13 | Sutton | (D) | D+6.4 | Open | |
| IA | 2 | Loebsack | (D) | D+6.9 | R » D | |
| MD | 3 | Sarbanes | (D) | D+7.1 | Open | |
| CT | 2 | Courtney | (D) | D+7.6 | R » D | |
| VT | AL | Welch | (D) | D+9.1 | I » D | Open |
| HI | 2 | Hirono | (D) | D+9.7 | Open | |
| FL | 11 | Castor | (D) | D+11.0 | Open | |
| TN | 9 | Cohen | (D) | D+18.1 | Open | |
| MN | 5 | Ellison | (D) | D+21.5 | Open | |
| GA | 4 | Johnson | (D) | D+22.0 | Open* | |
| NJ | 13 | Sires | (D) | D+22.9 | Open | |
| NY | 11 | Clarke | (D) | D+39.9 | Open |
Asterisk = defeated incumbent in primary.
Looking at these numbers it looks like Democrats have made a lot of safe gains and only picked up a few really vulnerable seats. Republicans, on the other hand, picked up a couple of very close seats and we’ll likely see serious challenges in the MI-07, IL-06, FL-13, Fl-09, and MN-06 at minimum.
Any word as to whether Scott Kleeb will be running again in the NE-03?
PA-10, TX-22, KS-02, OH-18, IN-09 etc. are gonna be very hard to hold on to. That bein said we have added some seats that probably won’t switch back to R in a long time like the two Iowa seats and the KY-03 seat and others.
I think we’ll PA-10 and IN-8. Worried about TX-22, but Lampson is a great candidate.
Can not possibly hold if we get the right candidate.
I am hoping that we can hold TX-22 with conservative Democrat Lampson. I think we can hold IN-08 without too much worry. Im pretty sure that Baron Hill knows how to win in IN-09 as he held on in 2000 and 2002 when he was a top target of the Republicans. I hope Boyda can tout a populist voting record that keeps her popular in KS-02. Im worried about Space in OH-18, however he was able to win by about 24 points and will hopefully mantain a moderate, pro-gun voting record that will help him hold on to the district.
As far as pickups, we need to expand the field again. We should try to recruit Joe Turnham to run again in AL-03. It would also be nice if in 2010 the legislature could pull some of the extra black voters out of AL-07 and place them in AL-06 and AL-02 to make those districts competitive again. AZ-01, NM-01, NM-02, MN-06, MN-02, the Michigan districts, PA-18, NV-03, OH-01, OH-15, IA-04, NY-25, NY-29, CT-04, WA-08, WA-05 and FL-13 all need to be top targets as we try to protect our freshman. I hope that the changover in the House in 2008 is minimal due to the likely competitive Presidential election.
Dem Held:KS-02,NH-01,PA-10,PA-04,FL-16,CT-02,KY-03,GA-12,GA-08,IA-03,CA-11
Limbo: NC-08,FL-13,UT-?
Gop Target List: CT-04,IL-06,AZ-01,IL-10,NJ-07,NJ-02,FL-08,CO-04,OH-01,OH-02,ID-01,PA-06,MI-07,IN-03,CA-04,CA-50,NY-25,NY-29,MN-06,CO-04,WY-AL,NE-01,NE-03,NE-02,NM-01,NY-03,OH-15,VA-02,VA-11.
That’s a start, expect lots will happen in the next 23 months to alter this listing.
Knew I’d forget at least one: Gop Target– WA-08.
Ya left out a crucial word there…
Chaka Fattah-D PA-02 is running for Mayor of Philly.
Prospective candidates please line up to run in this D+39 District. And hopefully a Progressive to replace the liberal Fattah.
http://www.pennlive….